Can intuition be measured? Measuring Traders’ intuitive skills on a seemingly unpredictable guessing game - Draft

Nicolas Hamelin, Archana Jois, Andrew Youssef.

Abstract

# Methodology

Then results from the quizzes are averaged and a t-test calculates if the difference between right and wrong averages are significantly statistically different:

Then results from the quizzes are averaged and a t-test calculates if the difference between right and wrong averages are significantly statistically different:

The experiment:

We use 2 intuitions pro devices and app (10 microS accuracy) and tested 27 traders from RV Capital Management Private Ltd based in Singapore. They also had to fill a self-report survey (appendix 1)  about their trading habit, trading skills and demographics. Each trader was requested to take a minimum of 3 quizzes of 8 round each.

Findings: Descriptive statistics

Out of 104 quizzes, 72 had valid results (t-value <0.05), and 32 had invalid value (no statistical difference reported between right or wrong levels). The following results are for quizzes with valid results, in other words, quizzes for which the differences between average right and average wrong is statistically significant.

Is there a statistically significant difference between groups of traders ?:

Prob F =0.0197 < 0.05 with F = 3.15; The difference between experience group is statistically different with inexperienced and highly experienced trader having a lower Intuitive Score than their peers. F(4,67) = 3.15, p = 0.0197.

# News Feed

Prob F =0.0004 < 0.05 with F = 6.82 The difference statistically significant, the more news feed are preferred for trading decision, the lesser the intuition. F(3,68) = 6.82, p = 0.0004

Prob F =0.0020< 0.05 with F = 4.74, The difference statistically significant, the more a trader is into holistic practices, the higher his or her intuition. F(4,67) = 64.74, p = 0.0020

Robust Linear regression testing correlation between measured intuition and ordinal independent variables. Greyed rows are statistically significant variable (p < 0.05). Number of observations = 72, p value = 0.0051. R-squared = 0.4428, Adj R-squared = 0.2674, Root MSE = 0.30881, F( 17, 54)  = .52